According to Fannie Mae’s most recent forecast, the housing market is likely to revert to a normal-ish level of price appreciation for the silent majority despite an abatement from the year’s dramatic price surge.

Case-Shiller Data Suggests that Home-Price Appreciation is Tapering

The S&P Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index reported an annual gain of 19.8% in August, indicating that home price growth is beginning to settle throughout the country. It is nearly the same increase as the previous month, marking the first time since early 2020 that the year-over-year increase in home prices hasn’t seen significant increases from one month to the next. The Case-Shiller 10- and 20-city composite indices, which track price increases in the country’s biggest cities, also mirrored the cooling. The 10-city index increased by 18.6%, while the 20-city index increased by 19.7%, slightly less than their July gain rates.

It’s worth noting that the 20-city composite index continues to climb faster than the 10-city index. Because the latter index only includes prices in the most populous U.S. metro areas, the 20-city’s higher gain indicates price growth in smaller, more inexpensive regions where migration from more expensive cities has aided price rises. Phoenix continued to lead all cities with annual price gains of 33.3%. It was the 27th straight month that the Arizona capital topped this category. San Diego (26.2%) was second, followed by Dallas (24.6%) and Seattle (24.3%).

Fannie Mae Forecasts Housing Market Cool-Off In 2022

According to Fannie Mae’s most recent forecast, median home prices will increase by 7.9% between the fourth quarter of 2021 and the fourth quarter of 2022. While this would be a slowdown from the year’s dramatic price surge, it would still be robust growth by historical standards. (Since 1987, the average yearly increase in property prices in the United States has been 4.1 percent.) At least in the eyes of Fannie Mae, the housing market is likely to revert to a normal-ish level of price appreciation.

Mortgage rates may rise in response to the tighter environment, but we expect the severe shortage of homes for sale to remain the primary driver of strong house price appreciation through at least 2022, limiting interest rate effects on home sales and home prices,” wrote Doug Duncan, chief economist at Fannie Mae, in its latest 2022 outlook.

New Home Sales Post Double-Digit September Gain

The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development report that newly constructed single-family homes sold at a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 800,000 units this month. This surge was a 14.0% increase over August’s pace of 702,000 units. Earlier reports put the figure at 740,000 units. Sales of 971,000 units were sold at a seasonally adjusted rate of 17.6 percent higher in September 2020 than in September 2019. Analysts polled by both Econoday and Trading Economics had a consensus forecast of 760,000 in sales.

The median price of a home sold in September was $408,800 compared to $344,400 last year. The average prices for the two periods were $451,700 and $405,100, respectively.

There were an estimated 379,000 new homes for sale at the end of September. At the current rate of sales, this amounts to a 5.7-month supply. In August, the inventory was good for 6.5 months, while in September 2020, it was only enough for 3.5 months.

The majority of the sales growth in September came from two regions: the Northeast with 32.3 percent, and the South with a 17.8 percent increase in sales compared to August.

Next weeks potential market moving reports are:

  • Monday, November 1st – Construction Spending
  • Tuesday, November 2nd – Homeownership Rate
  • Wednesday, November 3rd – ADP Employment Report, Federal Reserve Statement
  • Thursday, November 4th – Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Jobless Claims
  • Friday, November 5th – Consumer Credit, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings

As your mortgage and real estate professional, I am happy to assist you with any information you may need regarding mortgage or real estate trends.  I welcome the opportunity to serve you in any way I possibly can.  Please feel free to reach me at (800) 216-1047