Sharp Decrease In Demand Driving Housing Market Cooldown
HouseCanary Inc., a nationwide brokerage renowned for the accuracy of its real estate valuations, published its most recent Market Pulse report on Wednesday. It covered 22 measures obtained from listings and compared data between September 2021 and September 2022. According to their new survey, the number of homes being taken off the market and price reductions has dramatically increased as mortgage rates climb.
The ongoing lack of housing inventory over the past year has been mostly caused by frequent interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve to combat escalating inflation. Due to the record-high mortgage rates, the post-pandemic housing market has undergone a dramatic turnaround, according to HouseCanary.
As per Jeremy Sicklick, HouseCanary co-founder and CEO, the significant increases in listing removals and price drops are driven by declining demand.
A net of 3,179,129 new listings has been added to the market since September 2021, a 7.6% reduction from the preceding 52 weeks. Monthly new listing volume decreased by 19.2% compared to last year.
Over the last 52 weeks, 3,194,231 properties have gone into contract, representing an 11.1% decrease in the same period in 2021.
Home Price Appreciation Losing Steam
Although U.S. home prices resumed their 127-month consistent annual growth in August, they slowed for the fourth consecutive month to 13.5%, according to CoreLogic’s monthly Home Price Index and HPI Forecast. Since April 2021, the slightest yearly appreciation has been observed.
Similar discoveries were published on Monday by Black Knight, Jacksonville, Florida. According to its monthly Property Price Index, the median home price declined by 0.98% in August, slightly better than the monthly decline of 1.05% in July, which had been upwardly revised. The report also shows the months of July and August saw the most significant monthly price drops since January 2009.
As per Selma Hepp, interim head of CoreLogic’s Office of the Chief Economist, the August results partially reflect continued cooling in buyer demand brought on by rising mortgage rates and changing housing trends sparked by the conclusion of the COVID-19 outbreak. With nearly three-quarters of states reporting drops from July, the 0.7% month-over-month price decrease also points to a decline in homebuyer enthusiasm.
ADP: Private Sector Adds 208,000 Jobs; Annual Pay Up 8%
According to ADP, Roseland, New Jersey, the private sector added 208,000 jobs in September, which released the second of four significant jobs reports this week. However, annual pay growth slowed to just under 8 percent.
The ADP National Employment report indicates small businesses (those with 1–49 people) added 58,000 jobs in September, followed by medium-sized businesses (those with 50–499 employees), which added 90,000 jobs, and big enterprises, which added 60,000 jobs. According to the data, employers in the service sector created 237,000 new positions in December, while companies that manufacture goods lost 29,000 jobs overall.
“There are signs that people are returning to the labor market,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist with ADP. “We’re in an interim period where we’re going to continue to see steady job gains. Employer demand remains robust, and the supply of workers is improving–for now.”
According to the survey, job changers’ pay declined in September after experiencing double-digit year-over-year improvements since the summer of 2021. The worst slowdown in the three-year history of ADP data occurred in their annual salary, which increased by 15.7 percent instead of the revised 16.2 percent advance in August. In September, the yearly salary increase for those who kept their jobs was 7.8%, up from a revised 7.7% in August.
Humor of the Week:
What is a mortgage officer’s favorite Mexican food?
Next week’s potential market-moving reports are:
Monday, October 10th – No Report
Tuesday, October 11th – NY Fed 5-year Inflation Expectations
Wednesday, October 12th – FOMC Minutes
Thursday, October 13th – Cofre CPI, Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Jobless Claims
Friday, October 14th – Retail Sales, UMich Consumer Sentiment Index
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