New Information: Mortgage Bankers Association predicts Modest Increase in Purchase Volume Next Year Gas price decrease sets the stage for higher buyer confidence


MBA: A Modest Increase in Purchase Volume Next Year

Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) Chief Economist Mike Fratantoni said there will be a little upswing in the purchase market in 2023 despite the mortgage industry coming off of two record-setting years and being in a downturn.

Fratantoni made predictions while speaking at a convention in Washington, D.C. He predicted that the volume of purchase mortgages would increase by 4% from $1.638 trillion this year to $1.704 trillion next year. However, the refinancing volume will decrease by 24%, from $706 million to $540 million. He added that the total mortgage market would shrink from the anticipated $2.3 trillion this year to $2.2 trillion.

Fratantoni explained that the entire property market had been highly competitive and pricey this year. He did, however, state that younger customers will have benefits.

Previously buyers had to contend with “ten to fifteen competing offers” the previous year, but now they might be the only ones putting in a bid, according to Fratantoni.

Lower Gas Prices Push Consumer Confidence To Highest Level Since May

August saw a recovery in consumer confidence after three months of declining mood due to lower gas prices. Although positive, lingering concerns that the U.S. economy may enter a recession have dampened this gain.

The monthly snapshot of consumer attitudes published by the Conference Board increased from July’s downwardly revised 95.3 to 103.2. The headline index broke 100, the historical baseline statistic, in August for the first time since May, matching the level it had attained at that time.

“In the first half of the year, there were shocks to consumers from gas prices, the stock market, and mortgage rates,” said Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank. “Consumers look very reassured that the direction has stopped getting worse.”

According to the survey, Americans are less apprehensive about the economy’s present and future state. The present situation index, which gauges how individuals feel about the state of the economy and labor market, increased from 139.7 to 145.4 from the previous month. The recovery is linked to the decline in gas prices, which have dropped by more than a dollar a gallon from their mid-June peak to a nationwide average of less than $4, according to Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.

Housing Market ‘Weakening Sharply’ From April’s Peak

The numbers: The increase in the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-city house price index year-over-year fell to 18.6% in June from 20.5% in May. The 20-city index rose seasonally adjusted 0.4% in June, compared to 1.3% in May. The rate of price increases has significantly decreased since spiking at 21.2% in April. The national index, a more comprehensive measurement of home prices, increased 0.3% from May to June after being seasonally adjusted. The monthly growth in June was the smallest in the previous two years.

The South and Southeast witnessed the greatest price surge, with an increase of nearly 29%. Among the 20 cities, Tampa, Miami, and Dallas posted the most significant gains in June. The least significant annual gains were recorded in Cleveland, Minneapolis, and Washington, D.C. However, housing values in these areas increased nonetheless.

Big Picture: Both economists and real estate firms have emphasized that the price growth rate has significantly slowed. Additionally, the prices of an increasing number of homes currently on the market in epidemic boomtowns are being lowered – due in part to buyers’ hesitation to buy, given the upward trend in mortgage rates.

According to Craig J. Lazzara, managing director at S&P DJI, the growth rate in June was at or above the 95th percentile of prior price increases. Moreover, S&P emphasized that the rate of price growth was still strong. Prices have increased by 10.6% in the first half of the year, a pace of increase that has only been attained four times in the previous 35 years.

Next week’s potential market-moving reports are:

  • Monday, September 5th – No Reports
  • Tuesday, September 6th – ISM Services Index
  • Wednesday, September 7th – Cleveland Fed President Speaks, International Trade Balance
  • Thursday, September 8th – Initial Jobless Claims, Construction Spending, Consumer Credit
  • Friday, September 9th – Wholesale Inventories Revision

As your mortgage and real estate professional, I am happy to assist you with any information you may need regarding mortgage or real estate trends. I welcome the opportunity to serve you in any way I possibly can. Please feel free to reach me at (800) 216-1047.

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