Fantasy Fed Draft: The Power Players Determining Mortgage’s Future

Fantasy Draft

Are you ready for the most awaited event in the financial world? No, it’s not the Super Bowl. It’s our very own Fed Fantasy Draft! Get ready to have your minds blown as we delve into the crucial players influencing your mortgage rates and future housing decisions. Let’s unroll the red carpet and analyze who will set the mortgage market ablaze amongst the Fed members!

The Influencers in the Fed Arena

Jerome Powell: The Obsessive Anchor Beginning our list with the familiar face, Jerome Powell. Having served as a Fed member since 2018, Powell’s obsession with the 2% target on the PC inflation core has been a topic of hot debate. But with his term ending soon, will his legacy be marred by hyperinflation? Let’s remember Powell has no allegiance to President Biden. Could his push for this inflation target be a boon or bane?

Michelle Bowman: The Strategic Draft

Michelle Bowman, a name synonymous with a strategic outlook, may lack real-world experience. However, her statements indicate a tighter grip on economic regulations. Will she be the surprise package this season?

John Williams: The Realist

The coveted first pick from our draft – John Williams! With his foresight on inflation and the shelter lag, he seems poised to steer the ship through rocky waters. His stance on inflation, backed by robust credentials, makes him a promising player in this game.

The Dark Horses

Raphael Bostic: The Watchful Guardian

A sleeper pick, but Raphael Bostic’s recent remarks hint at a careful approach toward the financial ecosystem. Being cautious of not inducing unwarranted economic pain, he might be the voice of reason amidst the cacophony.

Patrick Harker: The Analytical Prodigy

With an analytical background, Patrick Harker has an eye for the sectors impacting the economy. Keeping a close watch on various sectors, he is the strategist every team needs!

Austin Goolsby: The Dovish Advocate

A relatively new face in the Federal realm, Austin Goolsby brings in a fresh perspective. Will his dovish stance, coupled with academic prowess, prove to be the game-changer?

Lisa Cook: The Data Devotee

Last but not least, Lisa Cook’s data-driven approach will indeed be a spectacle. As a significant voice in recession calls, her insights will be paramount.

Mortgage Market Pulse

The mortgage market appears tense, with mortgage-backed securities showing fluctuations. Recent articles and hawkish tones have left traders anxious, leading to concerns over future rate hikes. As we brace for the Federal announcements, the stakes couldn’t be higher. Whether you’re a high-end homebuyer or a seasoned investor, keep an eye out – the Fed’s comments will undoubtedly leave an indelible mark on the housing market’s trajectory.

Remember, just like in any fantasy draft, predictions can be thrilling but are based on data and past performances. Always consult with financial experts when making significant decisions. And don’t forget to have a little fun with it – after all, even finance has its sporting moments! 😉

Jackson Hole & The Great Treasury Tease: Will We See The Short Squeeze Dance?


We’re all eyes on the Jackson Hole meeting this week in the dance of financial dynamics. With rising speculations and tensions in the treasury, can we hope for a good old-fashioned short squeeze, or will the music take a different tune? Read on as we dissect the situation and make it dance to the beat of clarity.

The Squeeze Box Symphony

Some say finance is dry, but with $800 billion in short interest in the 10-year treasury (a whopping 20% increase in the last month), it’s starting to look more like a suspense thriller. For the uninitiated, a short interest of this magnitude implies that many folks are betting against the treasury. They’re throwing a party without even buying the drinks.

Jackson Hole – Not Just A Pretty Place in Wyoming

All eyes and ears will be on the symposium in Jackson Hole, where central bankers globally converge. Jerome Powell’s speech on Friday could make or break the mood. Historically, it’s been a stage to signal policy changes. So, with the Fed’s recent hawkish stance, we’re all ears for any potential groundbreaking revelations that could ripple across the markets. On a side note, real estate enthusiasts should also tune in for existing and new home sales data on Tuesday and Wednesday.

A Peek at the Technical Charts

For those who love a good visual, the charts are speaking volumes. The mortgage bonds and 10-year treasury are at very crucial levels, making some investors sweat a tad more than they’d like. While on the one hand, we see mortgage bonds in a downward spiral, the 10-year treasury is sniffing at highs from last October. If this trend continues, we might witness significant moves in both directions. 

As we anticipate the outcomes of the Jackson Hole meeting, the future of the treasury and mortgage bonds hangs in a delicate balance. With the potential for a short squeeze looming large, it’s like we’re watching an intense thriller unfold. But as with all good suspense stories, only time will tell which way the plot will twist. 

It’s a bit like watching a thriller movie, isn’t it? But instead of popcorn, we’ve got charts, and instead of jump scares, we’ve got… well, short squeezes. Let’s hope for a happy ending!

When Rates Take a Nostalgic Turn: Flashback or Flash-Forward?

Dog in a doghouse

It’s Friday, and for those keen on the mortgage landscape, the sentiment is quite unanimous – TGIF! This week has seen headlines whispering of soaring mortgage rates and decade-high yields. But let’s set the records straight, one decimal at a time.

Deciphering the Decades’ Riddle

When headlines screamed about the highest 10-year yield in decades, it made every financier double-take. But a little trip down memory lane (just last October, to be precise) reveals that we’ve seen these numbers before. It’s less a blast from the distant past and more a déjà vu from a few months ago.

What Lies Ahead? Predicting the Unpredictable

Despite the optimistic vibe we Californians are known for, the state of our economy remains debated. The stock market rollercoaster isn’t ending its ride anytime soon. And while we’ve seen robust numbers in the jobs sector, it’s imperative to see past the surface. Because, as the adage reminds us, not everything that shines holds value. And in our financial realm, each uptick in percentage doesn’t always translate to prosperity.

Let’s keep our spirits and math sharp as we close another eventful week in the mortgage world. With fluctuations in the market, misinformation in the headlines, and challenges ahead, it’s all in a day’s work for us. So, here’s to being cautiously optimistic and staying grounded (with a touch of Californian flair).