Pending Homes Down 6th Straight Month November New Home Sales Up 5.8% while Home Prices Hit Lowest Rate Of Appreciation In 2 Years

Pending Homes Down

November New Home Sales Up 5.8%

Over the holiday season, HUD and the Census Bureau revealed that new home sales increased by over 6% from October and exceeded the November forecast. According to the data, sales of new single-family homes increased to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 640,000 in November, up 5.8% from the revised October pace of 605,000.

Sales in the South declined by 2.1% in November, down to 369,000 units from 377,000 units in October. However, new home sales in the West jumped by over 28% in November to 171,000 units, seasonally adjusted yearly, from 134,000 units in October. Sales in the Midwest increased by 21.3% in November to 57,000 units from 47,000 units in October. Sales in the Northeast decreased by 8.5% in November from 47,000 units in October to 43,000 units.

According to Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist with First American Financial Corp., the purchases of homes for which construction has not yet begun accounted for most of the increase in new home sales in November, which were up 46.7% month over month.

Furthermore, new homes sold in November saw a median sales price increase to $471,200 and an average sales price increase of $543,600. At the end of November, the seasonally adjusted estimate of new homes for sale rose to 461,000. The current sales rate represents a housing supply of 8.6 months.

Home Prices Hit Lowest Rate Of Appreciation In 2 Years

According to a CoreLogic report, the 21-month record of double-digit growth in home prices ended in November with an increase of less than 9% compared to the same month in 2021.

Using the data of home prices, 16 states, including Florida and South Carolina, continued to experience yearly double-digit growth. However, “appreciation is decelerating in many popular housing markets across the country” in general. In sharp contrast to the previous month, when home price growth rose 20.9% in April compared to the same month in 2021, home prices increased 8.6% year over year in November. From October 2022, housing prices decreased by 0.2%.

Potential borrowers are concerned about the unstable stock market, a recession entering the new year, and homes no longer viable investments. The analysts at CoreLogic predict that home price increases will decelerate further into 2023 and reach 2.8% by November. According to Selma Hepp, deputy chief economist at CoreLogic, “2023 will present its own challenges, as consumers remain wary of both the housing market and the overall economic outlook.” 

However, the fact that mortgage rates dropped from over 7% in October to 6.42% in December may encourage buyers to continue looking for a home. Hepp regards the decrease in mortgage rates as boding well for the housing market.

Pending Homes Down 6th Straight Month

The National Association of Realtors announced Wednesday that pending home sales fell for the sixth straight month in November, reaching their second-lowest monthly figure in 20 years.

In November, the Pending Home Sales Index, a measure of impending home sales based on contract signings, decreased by 4.0% to 73.9. Pending transactions decreased by 37.8% yearly.

Transactions dropped in each of the four U.S. regions monthly and year over year. The index decreased 34.9% in the Northeast from a year ago and 7.9% from October to 63.3. The Midwest index dropped 31.6% from a year ago to 77.8 in November. The South decreased by 2.3% to 88.5, a 38.5% decrease from the previous year; the West index fell 45.7% from a year earlier to 55.1 in November, a 0.9% decrease.

The Midwest region — with relatively affordable home prices — has held up better, while the unaffordable West region suffered the largest decline in activity,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun.

Next week’s potential market-moving reports are:

  • Monday, January 9th – NY Fed Inflation Expectations, Consumer Credit
  • Tuesday, January 10th – NFIB Small Business Index, Wholesale Inventories
  • Wednesday, January 11th – No Report
  • Thursday, January 12th – Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims, Core CPI, Federal Budget
  • Friday, January 13th – UMich Consumer Inflation Expectations, Consumer Sentiment Index

As your mortgage and real estate professional, I am happy to assist you with any information you may need regarding mortgage or real estate trends. I welcome the opportunity to serve you in any way I possibly can. Please feel free to reach me at (800) 216-1047.

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U.S. Pending Home Sales Fall to Second-Lowest Level on Record But Double-digit U.S. Home Price Growth Streak Skids To An End

U.S. Pending Home Sales

U.S. Pending Home Sales Fall to Second-Lowest Level on Record But…

According to a statement released on Wednesday, the National Association of Realtors index pending home sales fell 4% this month to the lowest since before the pandemic for records dating back to 2001. Although the decrease exceeded all predictions from an economist survey conducted by Bloomberg, many feel that we are very close, if not already at the bottom of the market. This means that better times for housing may lie ahead in 2023.

The aggressive tightening effort by the Federal Reserve to control inflation has significantly affected the housing market in 2022. Home sales and, consequently, prices have been falling for months as borrowing costs have approximately doubled from where they were at the beginning of the year.

There are approximately two months of lag time between mortgage rates and home sales,” Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, said in a statement. “With mortgage rates falling throughout December, home-buying activity should inevitably rebound in the coming months and help economic growth.”

MBA Weekly Survey Dec. 21, 2022: Falling Rates Boost Refis for 2nd Straight Week

The Mortgage Bankers Association said Wednesday that its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending Dec. 16 showed an increase in refinancing activity for the second consecutive week due to the lowest interest rates since September.

Although the unadjusted refinance index rose 6% from the previous week, it was still 85% lower than the last week a year earlier. More mortgages were for refinances, from 29.4% the last week to 31.3 percent of all applications.

Double-digit U.S. Home Price Growth Streak Skids To An End

When mortgage rates spiked above 7% in October, and further limited demand, annual price growth in the U.S. housing market fell into the single digits for the first time in roughly two years, a pair of highly monitored surveys indicated on Tuesday.

The S&P CoreLogic Case Shiller national home price index saw its first single-digit gain since November 2020 in October, rising 9.2% as opposed to 10.7% in September. This is the index’s first non-double-digit gain since September 2020. The annual home price increase rate decreased to 9.8% in October from 11.1% in September, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency.

The Fed’s aggressive interest rate increases, intended to lower high inflation by reducing demand in the economy, have negatively impacted the housing market. The Fed increased rates by half a percentage point this month, capping a year that saw its benchmark rate grow at the fastest since the early 1980s, from nearly zero in March to between 4.25% and 4.5%. In 2023, rates, according to Fed experts, will likely reach 5%.

The National Association of Realtors predicted earlier this month that existing home values, which comprise the vast majority of the market, will stay steady in 2023.

Next week’s potential market-moving reports are:

  • Monday, January 2nd – No Report
  • Tuesday, January 3rd – Construction Spending
  • Wednesday, January 4th – Job Openings, Quits, FOMC Minutes
  • Thursday, January 5th– – Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims, ADP Employment Report
  • Friday, January 6th – Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings

As your mortgage and real estate professional, I am happy to assist you with any information you may need regarding mortgage or real estate trends. I welcome the opportunity to serve you in any way I possibly can. Please feel free to reach me at (800) 216-1047.

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Mortgage Demand Is Up In Six Weeks, Despite Much Higher Interest Rates – Housing Construction Rebounds Seen in August While Existing Home Sales Fall

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Housing Construction Rebounds In August While Permits Drop

According to the U.S. Census Bureau and Housing and Urban Development Department, residential building unexpectedly picked up in August, with home starts up 12.2% month over month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.58 million units.

Both multifamily and single-family starts increased during the month. The growth occurred even as the housing sector battles a slowdown brought on by the unpredictability of the economy and the climate of rising mortgage rates.

After falling for five consecutive months, single-family starts increased by 3.4% in August, perhaps as a result of some improvements in the supply of building materials. However, the single-family building is still insufficient by modern standards.

“Today’s housing starts report is more evidence that the housing recession is deepening for the single-family market, with the pace below 1 million for the last two months,” added Jing Fu, the NAHB’s director of forecasting and analysis. “Expected additional tightening of monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, falling builder sentiment, and a 15.3% year-over-year decline in single-family permits points to further weakening for the housing sector.”

Even while the August numbers are positive, the construction recovery might only be temporary. August saw a 10% drop in all building permits, with single-family permits falling by 3.5% and multifamily permits falling by 17.9%. The August reversal indicates that builders are still reducing production due to continued material cost concerns and muted demand. Permitting is a reliable predictor of future new-home supply.

Existing Home Sales Fall in August; Prices Soften Significantly

As the National Association of Realtors reported, sales of previously owned homes dropped 0.4% from July to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 4.80 million units. That is the lowest sales pace since May 2020, when the Covid epidemic’s beginnings temporarily caused activity to stall.

All price ranges saw a decline in sales, but the lower end saw the most significant drop. While sales of properties priced between $750,000 and $1 million were down just 3% from the previous year, those priced between $250,000 and $500,000 saw a 14% decline—a decline primarily due to supply, which is most scarce at the bottom end of the market.

Although there was a slight increase in single-family housing starts in August, the U.S. Census reports that homebuilders have been cutting back in response to declining demand. That might have been brought on by a momentary dip in mortgage rates that increased buyer interest. Building permits, a sign of upcoming construction, decreased since mortgage rates were anticipated to rise once more.

Mortgage Demand Is Up In Six Weeks, Despite Much Higher Interest Rates

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances—$647,200 or less—rose from 6.01% to 6.25%, with points for loans with a 20% down payment falling from 0.76 to 0.71 (including the origination fee).

Applications to refinance a home loan, often particularly susceptible to significant rate changes, actually increased 10% for the week. The prior week’s holiday adjustment might have impacted part of that. It’s also possible that the few remaining borrowers who could profit from a refinance finally decided to do so after realizing that rates might increase soon.

Despite an increase of 1% for the week, mortgage applications for home purchases were 30% fewer than during the same week last year. Since there is currently less competition in the expensive market, some buyers might act quickly. Even so, costs have not decreased much, and because interest rates are currently so high, affordability is historically poor. The slight weekly increase in mortgage demand does not accurately reflect the current severe decline in home sales.

A bank advertises that it offers mortgage loans with no interest.

Customer: “Hello, I’d like to apply for a mortgage.”

Bank Employee: “Yeah, whatever.”

Next week’s potential market moving reports are:

  • Monday, September 26 – Chicago Fed National Activity Index
  • Tuesday, September 27 – S&P Case Shiller and FHFA U.S. Home Price Index (SAAR), New Home Sales (SAAR)
  • Wednesday, September 28 – Pending Home Sales Index
  • Thursday, September 29 – Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Jobless Claims
  • Friday, September 30 – Core PCE Price Index, Real Consumer Spending, Chicago PMI

As your mortgage and real estate professional, I am happy to assist you with any information you may need regarding mortgage or real estate trends. I welcome the opportunity to serve you in any way I possibly can. Please feel free to reach me at (800) 216-1047.

Resource:-

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/21/mortgage-demand-rises-for-the-first-time-in-six-weeks.html

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