As investors and market enthusiasts, understanding the nuanced indicators of economic health can give us an edge in predicting future trends. Today, we are focusing on two potentially telling signals of an impending recession – surveys of truckers and used car prices. Trucking is a key indicator of economic vitality in logistics, while used car prices often reflect consumer demand and purchasing power.

Trucking Surveys Indicate a Possible Recession

Evercore’s survey of truckers, a reliable economic barometer, suggests we might be on the cusp of a recession. When the survey dips below a score of 48, it is often seen as an impending recession signal. The score has plummeted to 35.6, significantly lower than the ‘danger’ mark.

Used Cars and Inflation Pressure

Used cars have been adding considerable pressure to inflation recently. However, the latest reports suggest a slight ease in that pressure, with the Manheim report indicating a 2.7% drop in used car prices in May. Additionally, CarGurus also reported nearly flat-line trends for used cars. Such data implies that used cars, previously contributing to inflation, could bring some relief in the forthcoming inflation reports.

Despite these potential recession indicators, there is still optimism in the bond market. We anticipate good inflation reading soon, which should spur positive reactions from the bond market. However, we will have to wait until next week for that data.

In the meantime, the struggles in mortgage applications are worth noting, with purchases down 2% week over week and down 27% year over year. While more sensitive to rate changes, refinances have also seen a year-over-year drop of 42%.

As the economic narrative unfolds, remember to stay informed and attuned to the ever-changing economic landscape. Whether it’s survey data or car prices, these factors offer valuable insights into our economy’s health and the direction we may be heading. So, watch for these indicators and adapt to the potential changes.